Ukraine is winning this war, Western analysts now admit, according to Alina Frolova

For the first time, the West has dropped the line that Crimea is a problem for another day and begun to talk openly about Ukraine defeating Russia, according to Alina Frolova, coordinator of the CPEN Security Track and deputy chair of the board of the Centre for Defence Strategies. She tied the shift to the Ukrainian military’s recent gains on the peninsula.

She spoke at the International Forum of the Crimea Platform Expert Network.

“For the first time, Western analysts have started saying that Ukraine is winning this war,” she said. “Six months ago that conversation was impossible. We were being told it wasn’t realistic.”

The situation at sea, on land, and in the air has changed, Frolova said, yet Ukraine’s partners still have not had a serious discussion about one thing in particular: that a military path to liberating Crimea is now plausible.

“Alongside force in every domain, Ukraine has to apply hard diplomatic pressure to lock in the gains and shape what comes next from a position of strength,” she said.

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