The future is born through expert discussions: the two-day International Forum of the Crimea Platform Expert Network has ended in Kyiv

Experts from more than 20 countries, online and offline, shared their experience, discussed and built a common vision of how the collective security architecture of Ukraine and the world should be built after russia’s defeat.
Read about the conclusions of the Forum participants in this article

The Black Sea has become a source of profit for russia to continue the war – Black Sea Institute for Strategic Studies

This was stated by Andriy Klymenko, Head of the Monitoring Group, Black Sea Institute for Strategic Studies, during the International Forum of the Crimea Platform Expert Network “Foreseeing the Future: Expert`s View”.

“russia will withstand a long war. Even a very long war. The russian economy has withstood, adapted and reoriented to the global east. The Black Sea is becoming a source of profit for russia to continue the war. Since March 2023 alone, russia has been receiving 5 million tons of crude oil and 4.5 million tons of diesel fuel from Black Sea ports every month. Oil exports are only growing,” he said.

Andriy Klymenko added that in the seventh month of the embargo on russian oil, the number of embargo violations is increasing. Several dozen tankers a month make direct voyages to ports in the US, Belgium, Spain, Greece and other countries.

“Even partial economic isolation of such a large country as russia seems impossible. A fifth of the global economy will come to a standstill,” the expert added.

Ukraine will remain a territory of confrontation between the West and russia – Black Sea Institute for Strategic Studies

This was stated by Andriy Klymenko, Head of the Monitoring Group, Black Sea Institute for Strategic Studies, during the International Forum of the Crimea Platform Expert Network “Foreseeing the Future: Expert`s View”. 

“In the security sense, Ukraine, including the Black Sea, has already become and will remain a frontline state in the foreseeable future until we join NATO. A vast territory of constant, long-term confrontation between Western civilization and russian barbarism. The future of Ukraine is a warrior state,” he said. 

The expert added that this frontality will not remain within Ukraine’s borders, but will extend to the Black Sea region, as well as Poland and the Baltic states.

Warsaw is convinced that NATO should find ways to grant Ukraine membership – retired general of the Polish Armed Forces

NATO faces the task of strengthening its Eastern flank. Ukraine should already be a member of the Alliance.

This was emphasized by Andrzej Falkowski, General of the Polish Armed Forces, former diplomat, during the International Forum of the Crimea Platform Expert Network “Foreseeing the Future: Expert`s View”.

“Warsaw has a clear vision – the Alliance should find ways to grant Ukraine NATO membership, without taking into account Article 5. Even in this article itself, there is quite a lot of flexibility, there are no actions that need to be taken for membership. And there would be no harm for NATO if Ukraine joined the Alliance. Since the last summit, President Zelenskyy should have already left as the president of a NATO member state,” said Andrzej Falkowski.

The expert added that Crimea remains a lever of influence used by Russia to destabilize the situation in the Black Sea region. And now the task is to de-russify the peninsula, which has been under occupation for 9 years. Even so, Ukraine will not be a burden for NATO, but only a security guarantor.

NATO lacks a clear strategy to ensure security in the Black Sea region – German Marshall Fund of the United States

This opinion was expressed by Bruno Lethe, Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, during the International Forum of the Crimea Platform Expert Network “Foreseeing the Future: Expert`s View”.

russia is increasing its military presence in the Black, Baltic and Mediterranean Seas. Such active actions near NATO’s borders are an obstacle to navigation. The Black Sea is one of the most dangerous places, and it is difficult to conduct defense there. It is not clear why so little attention was paid to this issue at the last NATO summit in Vilnius. Most likely, the Alliance does not have a clear strategy on how to act in this region,” he said.

According to Bruno Lethe, NATO is still developing further steps for security in the region, but only Ukraine is able to ensure stability in the region. Therefore, the fact that there is no unanimity among NATO members on the issue of accepting Ukraine into the Alliance is surprising.

The International Criminal Court pays insufficient attention to the investigation of Russian crimes committed before February 2022 – Global Rights Compliance LLP

This was stated by Wayne Jordash, Managing Partner at Global Rights Compliance LLP, during the International Forum of the Crimea Platform Expert Network “Foreseeing the Future: Expert`s View”.

The International Criminal Court is taking an insufficient approach to investigating war crimes. Since russia’s full-scale invasion, the volume of crimes has indeed increased. But experts did not see an emphasis on investigating crimes until 2022. This somewhat de-prioritizes the crimes committed by the occupier since 2014,” said Wayne Jordash.

The expert suggested that in this context, we should better study the experience of Crimea, because the peninsula is the best example of what a prolonged occupation leads to.

“It is from the experience of the occupied Crimea that we will see that the international community should not take the crimes committed by russia on the territory of Ukraine until February 2022 off the agenda. This is not an object of bargaining,” he said.

Ukraine already has the first court verdicts in cases of russian judges and military officers involved in crimes against Ukrainian citizens – Crimean prosecutor’s office

The Prosecutor’s Office of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol continues to document and investigate war crimes cases. Currently, there are already sentences in absentia for crimes that have no analogues in Ukrainian criminal law.

This was stated today, on July 19, by Igor Ponochovny, Head of the Prosecutor’s Office of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, during the International Forum of the Crimea Platform Expert Network “Foreseeing the Future: Expert`s View”.

“Ukraine has the first court verdicts in absentia in the cases of russian military commissars who force Crimeans to serve in the russian army and against judges who made decisions to deport Ukrainians from Crimea. These are crimes that have no analogues in Ukrainian criminal law,” he said.

According to the Crimean prosecutor, this means that these verdicts are already a practice for other courts, given the number of war crimes that are registered in Ukraine.

Occupation authorities of Crimea prosecute 294 citizens in criminal cases, 196 of them are Crimean Tatars – Crimean Tatar Resource Center

Eskender Bariiev, Chairman of the Board of the Crimean Tatar Resource Center, said this during the International Forum of the Crimea Platform Expert Network “Foreseeing the Future: Expert`s View”.

“According to the Crimean Tatar Resource Center, the occupation authorities in Crimea have detained and are prosecuting 294 citizens, 196 of whom are representatives of the Crimean Tatar people. 175 people are currently imprisoned, 117 of them are representatives of the Crimean Tatar people. This proves once again that since 2014 Crimean Tatars have clearly stated their position,” he said.

russia continues to present the culture of the northern Black Sea region as its own culture, this must be changed – Institute of Archeology of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

Ukraine is the heir to the culture of the peoples who lived in the northern Black Sea region and Crimea. Despite Russia’s attempts to steal this culture, it is Ukrainian artists who should represent it in the world. This was stated by Evelina Kravchenko, a leading researcher at the Institute of Archeology of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, during the International Forum of the Crimea Platform Expert Network “Foreseeing the Future: Expert`s View”. 

“It all started with the theft of culture. Cultural heritage cannot change. russia has been defining the northern Black Sea region as its own territory for centuries and presenting it to Europe and the world as if it were their culture. Ukrainian artists are newcomers to these markets. We are only now being recognized and listened to,” she said. 

Evelina Kravchenko expressed her belief that when it comes to the cultural heritage of Crimea, it cannot be separated from the rest of Ukraine’s culture.

We should not hope for the development of democratic processes in russia, this nation has no experience of democracy – The Kyiv School of Economics

The majority of the population living on the territory of modern russia has never had any democratic experience of its own. Therefore, hopes for the emergence of democratic societies in Russia are completely futile. This was stated by Oleksandr Halenko, professor at the Kyiv School of Economics, during the International Forum of the Crimea Platform Expert Network “Foreseeing the Future: Experts View”. 

“We can only count on a palace coup. Something like Prigozhin. But such characters lead russia into an unpredictable state of civil war and this is what no one in the world wants,” he said.

The expert added that terrorism is a key element of russian policy. It is used to control its own population. The first victim of russian terror is the russian people. Because of this terror and the loyalty it receives, russia will become a threat to the whole world.

putin will continue the war indefinitely, otherwise he will be destroyed by his own people – Dmytro Zolotukhin

This scenario of russia’s near future was outlined by Dmytro Zolotukhin, Executive Director of the Institute of Post-Information Society, during the International Forum of the Crimea Platform Expert Network “Foreseeing the Future: Expert`s View”.

“Despite the fact that European politicians have stated that the future of russia is in the hands of the russians themselves. I can completely disagree with this. There is no society in russia that is ready to take responsibility for the country’s future. The only player is the russian mafia, which is essentially running this country. This means that there is no future for this country, and there is no post-war russia headed by putin and his supporters,” he said.

Dmitry Zolotukhin noted that putin has no other choice but to continue the war indefinitely. If he declares that he plans to stop the fighting in Ukraine, he will be attacked by his own henchmen.

russia did not extend the federalization agreement, all subjects have the right to independence, the world must recognize this – the government of Ichkeria in exile

Modern russia is not a federation. Everyone forgets that the treaty on the formation of a federal state was signed in 1992 and only for 10 years. In 2002, it was supposed to be extended. Which russia did not do. 

This was stated by the Prime Minister of the Government of Ichkeria in exile, Akhmed Zakayev, during the International Forum of the Crimea Platform Expert Network “Foreseeing the Future: Expert’s View”. 

“Today, modern russia is a colonial state, an empire. And all the peoples who allegedly voluntarily signed that treaty have the right to freedom. The world must recognize this,” he said.

Akhmed Zakayev emphasized that Ukraine has become the leader of the free world today and all nations seeking freedom should be guided by it: “Victory over russia means freedom for all enslaved nations. The world must be prepared for the fact that russia must cease to exist. And whether the world will be ready for this depends largely on Ukraine.”

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