russian political elites have begun considering a post-putin power transition – Study by the Dilova Stolytsia analytical center

Political elites in russia are undergoing significant shifts with far-reaching consequences, even if they appear unrealistic at present. Although discussing leadership change remains taboo, elites have started operating within the framework of a post-putin transition.

Vadym Denysenko, head of the Dilova Stolytsia (Business Capital) analytical center, stated this during a briefing at the Media Center Ukraine.  

“putin does not conceptualize a successor at all. Conversely, the idea that someone could rule instead of him isn’t just absent – it implies that anyone considering it would face criminal repercussions. Nevertheless, elites have begun thinking and acting within this paradigm,” Denysenko said.

Background: The recent russian presidential elections – which excluded any alternative to putin – served as a plebiscite endorsing the russian dictator as emperor. This process nullified all prior agreements with the elites, created an untouchable inner circle of ~20 people close to the russian president, and left all others exposed to political and personal risk.

“Before the last elections, russia had entire verticals of untouchable figures. The FSB could compile evidence against Governor X but lacked authority to imprison him – only mid-level officials could be targeted without Moscow’s explicit approval,” Denysenko elaborated.  

Today, only three groups retain “untouchable” status:  the FSB, putin’s personal security apparatus, and  the inner circle of 20 directly shielded by the Kremlin.

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