For Illia Pavlenko, a new phase has begun in Crimea, the operational isolation of Russia’s military

The fight over Crimea has changed in kind, not just degree. Ukraine has moved from striking individual high-value targets to systematically degrading Russia’s ability to use the peninsula as a military launchpad.

That was the assessment of Illia Pavlenko, a major general who served as deputy head of Defense Intelligence of Ukraine from 2015 to 2020, speaking at the International Forum of the Crimea Platform Expert Network.

“Russia tried to use the relative safety of Crimea to base its air defenses, its fleet, its aviation, to command its forces and to pressure the Black Sea and southern Ukraine,” he said. “Now the peninsula carries constant risk, and its logistics are strained. Crimea is already becoming a political problem for Moscow. Our aim is not to isolate the people of Crimea but to stop Russia from using it as a weapon of war. A new phase has begun, the operational isolation of the military machine in Crimea.”

The shift is opening new openings for Ukraine, Pavlenko said: the peninsula is no longer a safe rear, Russia can no longer wage war from it, its resources are being pulled away, and the military pressure is producing a diplomatic effect.

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