Experts outline possible scenarios for ending the war in Ukraine in global outlook 2026

The number of potential pathways to resolve the war in Ukraine has narrowed in 2026, according to political analyst Ihar Tyshkevich, a russia expert speaking at the Media Center Ukraine.

“The Finnish scenario is one of the options,” Tyshkevich said. “It would represent a tactical defeat for Ukraine. Under this scenario, the legal recognition of new russian-held territories could occur, which would likely trigger significant internal political turmoil across two electoral cycles.”

Other possibilities include the Georgian or Korean scenarios, in which Ukraine would lose control over certain territories without granting them formal political recognition. Analysts also point to a political scenario in which active hostilities are halted while talks continue.

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