End of the “Trade Visa-Free” regime: Analyst outlines possible scenarios after June 5

Several scenarios are currently being considered for what might happen after the expiration of the EU-Ukraine “trade visa-free” agreement. According to analysts, the changes could cause significant losses for Ukrainian exporters.

This was discussed by Pavlo Martyshev, an analyst at the Food and Land Use Research Center at the Kyiv School of Economics, during a talk at the Media Center Ukraine.

“There are three main options. The first is the reinstatement of autonomous trade regimes. But this is highly unlikely. The second option, and the most probable, is that we will revert to the trade conditions that existed from 2016 to 2022. This would be a major blow to our exporters, especially to those in processing industries. The third option is some kind of hybrid model – perhaps partial liberalization. And all of this is part of our broader European integration of the agricultural sector. In any case, it’s going to be quite unpleasant. Analysts estimate that the losses for our exporters could amount to $3–3.5 billion. But we’ll have to wait and see what happens,” he noted.

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